The size of Delhi's Budget is close to Rs 55,000 crore, or about 6 per cent of its gross state domestic product (GSDP). What set the state apart is that in the last decade, its fiscal deficit hardly crossed 1 per cent of GSDP, while many other states grappled to contain it within 3 per cent. This was largely possible due to the revenue surplus position, reports Abhishek Waghmare.
'If you do quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, someone earning Rs 10 lakh can get a benefit of anywhere between Rs 35,000 and Rs 45,000, even if s/he is availing exemptions.' 'A large proportion of people do not avail full exemptions as they don't have money to invest in those schemes.'
'There are some encouraging signs.' 'Notice that we have not said 7%-plus, we are keeping it at 6% to 6.5%.'
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
The impact of economic slump was visible in the Budget's fine print, as this step-by-step explanation show how the Budget math was worked out, reports Abhishek Waghmare.
This is due to the newly formed Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, which will get funds from the Centre's share, which means devolution will be for 28 states compared to 29 earlier.
Any reduction in devolution could aggravate the strained relations between the Centre and some opposition-ruled states on a number of issues, including CAA.
Processes are at an advanced stage for a number of assets of the Centre and central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) to be monetised. The assets include office space, apartments, factories, land, power transmission assets, sports stadia, gas pipelines, and telecom assets.
In comparison to other asset classes, globally, gold rallied significantly after many years to deliver 18.4 per cent returns in 2019.
Oil sank to the lowest level in a month after shedding all of its gains from the US-Iran clash as traders waited to see whether any further hostilities will disrupt exports from the East Asia.
If the fiscal deficit for the year can be maintained at Rs 7.04 trillion, the deficit as a percentage of GDP will slip to 3.44 per cent
While the situation Sitharaman finds herself in may not be that good, how does it stack up against her three immediate predecessors Pranab Mukherjee, P Chidambaram and the late Arun Jaitley?
It is also likely to assume a deflator of around 4 per cent. That could take the nominal GDP outlook for FY21 to around 10 per cent. It is this nominal GDP forecast on the basis of which the finance ministry is calculating key Budget targets like the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and tax revenue growth for the coming year.
Starting today, Modi and top officials in the Prime Minister's Office will be briefed by various central ministries and departments on their plans as well as agenda for the next five years. They will also apprise the PMO of the work they have done so far in realising the agenda of government's second term in office.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her second Budget a little more than a month from now. Like any other FM, Sitharaman will depend on her team of bureaucrats and advisors to frame and present the Budget.
In 2009, the UPA government, had announced a slew of measures to boost liquidity in NBFCs. These included a scheme for providing liquidity support to NBFCs having assets size of over Rs 100 crore through a SPV.
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
If the protected growth in GST revenue is reduced to 10 per cent, the Centre would save more than Rs 25,000 crore in 2020-21 if none of the states show any revenue growth. This would nearly amount to 0.1 per cent of the gross fiscal deficit and help the government in avoiding fiscal slippage to some extent in subsequent years.
Even with the possible expenditure roll-overs and off-budget financing, the fiscal deficit target will not be met. The FRBM Act, after its amendment in 2018, allows a fiscal deficit slippage of not more than 0.5 per cent for any given year, provided there are justifications. These justifications include war, national security, severe collapse in the agriculture sector, a major natural calamity, big structural economic reforms, or the decline in real output growth of a quarter by at least 3 percentage points below its average of the previous four quarters.
In the 2020-21 Budget, the prime minister and the finance minister are keen to stamp their narrative, after various rollbacks following the previous Budget, said top government sources. Besides the scheduled meetings, the sources said, the Prime Minister's Office is expected to hold several meetings with top secretaries and officials on various ongoing schemes, their performance and also how some of them could be tweaked for better results.
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